Favorite To Win 2028 Presidential Race Turns Heads In DC
The betting platform Polymarket launched its 2028 presidential election sweepstakes on Friday, giving users a chance to buy and sell shares on who they believe will win the White House.
Vice President JD Vance is the early favorite overall, sitting at 27 percent, according to the site. California Gov. Gavin Newsom trails behind at 17 percent, followed by New York Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez at 10 percent. Former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg and others round out the top of the board.
Kamala Harris, who was the Democrats’ 2024 nominee and former vice president, sits far down the list at just 4 percent, one point behind President Donald Trump, who is constitutionally barred from running again after completing two terms.
BREAKING: VP J.D. Vance is the heavy favorite to win the 2028 presidential election, per Polymarket. pic.twitter.com/RskgCwoebU
— Leading Report (@LeadingReport) July 18, 2025
Among Democrats, Newsom leads the field with a 22 percent chance, followed by Ocasio-Cortez at 18 percent, Buttigieg at 12 percent, Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro at 7 percent, and Harris at 6 percent.
On the Republican side, Vance dominates. He holds a commanding 56 percent lead over second-place Marco Rubio, who trails far behind at just 6 percent.
Vance’s position as the clear GOP frontrunner comes after he took over as RNC campaign finance chair in March, the first sitting vice president to hold the role. It’s made him one of the party’s top fundraisers heading into the 2026 midterms and beyond, The Daily Caller reported.
He’s also become a regular presence in high-profile interviews, helping push key Trump administration picks like Director of Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard and HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. through the Senate.
Rep. Byron Donalds called Vance “the leader in the clubhouse” earlier this year and said he’d be tough to beat in 2028.
Newsom, meanwhile, continues making moves of his own. He’s appeared in several high-traffic interviews with right-leaning hosts and remains very active online, which are signs that many believe point to a future run.
He’s also earned support from South Carolina Rep. Jim Clyburn, one of the most influential Democrats in the country. At an event in early July, Clyburn appeared beside Newsom and said he “feels good about” his chances in 2028.
Clyburn’s endorsement was critical in President Biden’s 2020 primary win and helped turn around his campaign at a pivotal moment.
Polymarket, which calls itself the largest prediction market in the world, lets users place bets on political events and outcomes. The site has gained attention for being surprisingly accurate in past election cycles.
Meanwhile, Vance has used his vice presidential duties frequently since taking office. This week, he made two tie-breaking votes in the Senate on Tuesday to advance a $9.4 billion rescissions plan that will eliminate government funding for PBS and NPR.
The Senate tied 50-50 on two procedural votes to begin discussion of the multibillion-dollar expenditure clawback plan until Vance’s votes advanced the White House-requested proposal.
Three Republicans, all seen as anti-Trump — Sens. Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.), Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska), and Susan Collins (R-Maine) — joined all Democrats in opposing the plan.
The package, passed by the House of Representatives last month, eliminates approximately $8.3 billion previously allocated to the US Agency for International Development (USAID) and $1.1 billion to the Corporation for Public Broadcasting (CPB), which partially funds National Public Radio (NPR) and the Public Broadcasting Service (PBS).
A projected $400 million decrease to the President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR) program is anticipated to be removed through an amendment before the measure is voted on.
“There was a lot of interest from our members on doing something on PEPFAR,” Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) told reporters after a meeting with Office of Management and Budget (OMB) Director Russ Vought. “That’s reflected in the substitute.”
“We hope that if we can get this across the finish line in the Senate, that the House will accept that one small modification that ends up making the package about a $9 billion rescissions package,” Thune added.
